■Overview of Commemorative Lectures■

It is my hope that the Asia Pacific Forum will help to mobilize not just Hyogo Prefecture, but also the rest of the world to put life on a better trajectory - the trajectory to achieve the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris climate treaty. I would like to begin by expressing my condolences to the 6,434 victims of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. We still do not know how to stop earthquakes, but the man-made disasters of global warming and Cold War 2.0 can be stopped.

Global warming is causing reconfiguration of the global pattern of production in agriculture, more frequent natural disasters, and biodiversity losses. In addition, trade wars are threatening economic prosperity. Amid the COVID-19 crisis, the former President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the World Health Organization (WHO). Instead of working together to fight the infectious disease, the world was hesitant about aid for poor countries, allowing the appearance of the Delta variant in India and then the Omicron variant in South Africa. With national security being threatened, many more countries are investing more in guns than in factories, which is hampering economic growth.

The causes of a Cold War are trade competition, technology, and threat, which are referred to as the "three T's" in geopolitical terms. Regarding U.S. foreign policy against China, there are mainly three groups. The first group are anti-communists who are trying to begin a U.S.-China war. The second group are high-finance companies and high-tech companies trying to lead dialogue and interaction with China toward prosperity. The third group are internationalists striving to ensure that the U.S. and China team up together and govern the rest of the world. Thanks to the coalition of Group 2 and Group 3, China was able to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. However, since there is still no opening up on overseas electronic payment systems, the financial companies in Group 2 have switched over to Group 1 and have begun to take a confrontational stance toward China. Similarly, the high-tech companies in Group 2 have begun to regard China as a rival as a result of the rise of Chinese WeChat and Huawei. Furthermore, it was revealed that the Chinese military has been conducting successful cyber-spying on U.S. companies on behalf of Chinese companies, further deteriorating the U.S.-China relationship.

The U.S. is trying to reduce technological diffusion to China, but this will damage China’s neighbors tremendously. I worked with three Korean professors to research the GDP decline caused by a reduction in technological diffusion. The research has revealed that a decline is expected not only in the U.S. and China, but also in Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and ASEAN. Japan, Korea, and ASEAN should work together to stop the Cold War, and we recognize that both Chinese and American people also actually want peace and progress.

The negative spiral in the tensions between the U.S. and China stems from three types of competition: trade competition, technology competition, and geo-strategic competition. The way to deal with this is not to decouple relations between the U.S. and China, but to decouple these three types of competition. National security is achieved by ensuring that those who launch the first attack will not succeed in winning, and that the first attack will not result in the defeat of those who were attacked. As we did during the first Cold War, we need to set clear rules to prevent force across borders. The prevention of such border disputes will lead to a win-win outcome and allow business development. Economic sanctions are not an efficient instrument in ensuring national security. The world has tightened economic sanctions against North Korea since 2006, but North Korea is still around today and is continuing to threaten us. Technological competition is a major hindrance to industrial policies.

Therefore, unfair transactions should be prohibited. The best way for the U.S. to compete against China is not to contain China’s technological rights, but to decouple the three types of competition.

As trust between the U.S. and China is too low to conclude an arms control agreement and an industrial policy agreement, Japan can play a leadership role in what the Bible describes as “beating swords into plowshares.” Japan should take the leadership in rebuilding U.S.-China relations. Yesterday's award ceremony for dissertations on three neighboring countries of Japan made me realize that Japan has deep knowledge of Asia. Furthermore, in order to achieve global net zero emissions as an anti-global warming measure, it is necessary to ensure that Southeast Asia becomes a zero CO2 emitter, and ultimately a negative emitter. To preserve rainforests, which act as carbon sinks, Southeast Asia needs expertise and financial support from other countries. I hope that Japan will form a partnership with Korea and ASEAN, and ultimately involve China and the U.S. in providing technical and financial support for Southeast Asia.

Established in 2012 with Jeffrey Sachs as the president, the UN SDSN has more than 1,800 members around the world. We have three offices in New York, Paris, and Kuala Lumpur. The Asia headquarters in Kuala Lumpur works with Japanese partners to design country-specific sustainable development projects and climate action programs. For the ASEAN Green Future Project (AGF), nine ASEAN countries have established teams to engage in quantification of the costs and benefits of decarbonization. Meanwhile, inspired by the Science Panel for the Amazon (SPA) for preserving the biodiversity of the Amazon basin, the Science Panel for Southeast Asia Biodiversity Protection (SP-SEA) has been intended to accomplish various targets in Southeast Asia, such as the preservation of biodiversity, sustainable agricultural development, regional economic prosperity, and land use for realizing green cities.

We are faced with major threats, such as climate change and Cold War 2.0. However, we can stop them because they are man-made threats. Let’s stop them in Southeast Asia and provide the building of an international coalition to restore international harmony.

I would like to report on my research analyzing how to increase the representation of women in fields with a high proportion of men in Japan, particularly science and medicine. In both fields, decisions made by people when they are young have a significant impact on their long-term careers. This suggests that reforms in education and awareness-raising activities for young people will lead to an increase in women’s representation in these fields in the future.

In medicine, an analysis was made of differences in career development between female and male physicians after the completion of their initial clinical training. In some medical specialties, such as surgery, urology, neurosurgery, and orthopedics, the proportion of male physicians is high. In other specialties, such as obstetrics and gynecology, pediatrics, ophthalmology, and anesthesiology, the proportion of female physicians is high. In this report, the specialties in which physicians work after the completion of their initial clinical training are referred to as their “initial specialty.” When female physicians choose an initial specialty with a high proportion of men, the proportion of female physicians who stay long enough to develop their careers in that specialty tends to be low compared to women choosing specialties with high proportion of women.

In initial specialties with a high proportion of male physicians, we find that female physicians, when compared to their male counterparts, have not only a lower rate of continuing to work in the specialty, but also a lower rate of acquiring basic board certification and subspecialty certification. Assuming that greater parity between male and female physicians would be socially and professionally desirable, these facts suggest that some changes should be made to the professional education and practical training that female physicians receive in the earliest stages of their careers to help them advance later on a par with their male colleagues. In contrast, in initial specialties with a high proportion of women, there is no gap between men and women in their respective rates of continuing to work in their specialties or acquiring basic certification; nevertheless, the rate of female physicians acquiring subspecialty certification is lower than that of male physicians. In initial specialties with a high proportion of women, it is therefore still necessary to establish an environment in which women can better advance their careers-by such steps as acquiring subspecialty certification-beyond the earliest stages of their career development period. We have also discovered that, with working hours varying depending on the specialty, female physicians, who tend to carry much of the burden of household work and childcare in their families, tend to select specialties with shorter working hours.

The clinical training system for physicians was revised in 2004. Accordingly, clinical residents need to receive not “straight training” (i.e., limited to a single specialty), but so-called “super rotation training” (i.e., in multiple specialties legally designated as compulsory). Now that surgery has been set as a compulsory rotation, an increasing number of female physicians are selecting surgery, urology, and neurosurgery, all of which traditionally have a high proportion of men, as their initial specialties. On the other hand, no increase has been found in the number of female physicians selecting orthopedics. Meanwhile, the number of female physicians who remain in their initial specialty and obtain subspecialty certificates has increased. The new system has enabled female physicians to gain practical experience in multiple specialties before having to select their initial specialty.

As noted above, the introduction of the new clinical training system has led to an increase in the percentage of female physicians selecting surgical specialties as their initial specialty, as well as in the percentage of female physicians obtaining subspecialty certificates. However, the number of female surgeons is still small; in order to increase this number, workstyle reform would be necessary in surgery-related fields, where long working hours are the norm today. Other effective measures to increase the number of female physicians, especially for orthopedics, also need to be explored.

On the other hand, many challenges still exist in Japan regarding the expansion of women’s representation in science. According to the survey we conducted among first-year high school students and their parents regarding their choice of a future major in university, few female first-year high school students considered taking the science track during their high school years. In addition, female students and their parents did not include engineering as a major in which they might enroll in the future. Moreover, compared to male students, fewer female students talked with their parents about majoring in engineering.

For both male and female high school students, the two important determinants in selecting their majors in university were interest in the content of that major and a high probability of passing the university entrance exam in that major. Male and female students, as well as the parents of male students, placed more importance on interest in study content, while the parents of female students placed more importance on a high probability of passing the university entrance exams for the major. This suggests that the parents of female students want their daughters to enter university without any interruption, that is, they did not want their daughters to have to study an extra year in order to be accepted in university. Furthermore, since female students talk especially with their mothers about their career paths, we expect that if mothers deepen their understanding of science as a possible choice for their daughters to study at university, such mothers might suggest to their daughters that they should enroll in science. Therefore, in order to encourage female students to major in science in university, it would be effective to raise the awareness of both mothers and daughters about the advantages of considering science as a future career.

Two years later, we conducted a follow-up survey just before graduating from high school. The survey found that, among the male students who had intended early on (in their first year of high school) to major in engineering, half of them had realized their intention. To major in science in university, it is necessary to study hard in both math and science in high school, which might lead some parents to not persuade their daughters to take an entrance exam for a science major in university. An improvement in science education at public elementary and junior high schools (that is, well before high school), which is currently limited in Japan, might lead to at least a partial closure of this gender gap.

In order for women to build careers in science, it is desirable that they intend and expect to choose the science track in their first year of high school. Making this more likely among female students would entail an improvement in science education at public elementary and junior high schools and deepening parents’ awareness about scientific careers. In particular, it is necessary to raise the awareness of parents, especially mothers, regarding the career paths that their daughters can take after majoring in science and engineering. In the meantime, the science-teaching support-staff assignment project, launched by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) in 2007, has brought about some positive results, including an improvement in teachers’ skills for teaching science in public elementary schools and a growth of children's interest in science. It seems reasonable to expect that, if better science education can be provided at public elementary and junior high schools, this will encourage more female students to select science or engineering as the major to pursue at university and for their future careers.

■Overview of Keynote Proposals■

Some people think that measures against global warming will cause the economy to decline. However, now that the cost of renewable energy has fallen, investment in green industries and logistics can improve the economy and the environment, and create employment. This is the definition of the Green New Deal.

Japan is trying to resume nuclear power generation as a measure against global warming. However, some documents indicate that, compared to renewable energy, nuclear power generation costs more to generate power and reduce CO2 emissions and has a higher risk of accidents. According to the Report 2030, issued in 2021 by a group of researchers including myself as a Japanese version of the Green New Deal, job opportunities created by the installation of new renewable energy are esteemed to greatly outnumber unemployed workers in the fields of nuclear power plants and fossil fuels. The report provides specific figures.

As indicated by an increase in the number of natural disasters, global warming is causing serious damage. There is no time to hesitate in reducing CO2 emissions. It is necessary to promote the transition to renewable energy as soon as possible, also to revive the economy.

The empowerment of women in Japan is a challenge to be addressed not only in the field of science but also in the field of humanities. To present that fact based on data, the Gender Equality Association for Humanities and Social Sciences (GEAHSS) has been established as an organization for horizontally connecting the fragmented academic societies of the humanities and social sciences.

Japan is in a minority in the world, in that the percentage of women receiving higher education in the humanities and the proportion of female researchers in the field are both low. Such a small number of female researchers in the humanities often give up their careers due, for example, to the transfer of their spouse, a lack of time to write papers because they are busy doubling as a part-time lecturer, and difficulty striking the balance with childcare and household work. In addition, for women receiving higher education in the humanities, there are few occupational choices other than research jobs at university, and this is another challenge.

It is hoped that researchers of the humanities will be able to talk with each other regardless of gender, and share the challenges they face when continuing their research.

Since the 2015 Paris Agreement, which has expanded the global movement toward decarbonization, China has been promoting the spread of electric vehicles (EVs) under a national policy. Today, China is No. 1 in the world in terms of production, sales, and exports. Especially since 2021, sales of new cars have increased significantly, mainly due to the appearance of excellent vehicles, increased exports, and penetration into small and medium-sized cities and rural areas. The national government is providing subsidies to EV purchasers and proceeding with the installation of charging stations and battery exchange stations, while companies are supplying EVs with low, medium, and high prices, adding connected functions, and realizing local production of batteries and other EV components.

Overtaking Germany in automobile export volume, China has become No. 2 in the world and is now closing in on Japan. Japan, where gasoline-powered vehicles are the mainstream, lags behind the rest of the world in the field of EV development. To survive amid the global competition, the Japanese car industry needs not only to realize energy saving and cost reduction for gasoline-powered vehicles, but also to design, develop, and sell differentiated EVs equipped with multiple functions.

■Overview of Parallel Sessions■

In Parallel Session 1, we had a free discussion for an hour on the theme "Decarbonization / Green Energy and Economic Activities," attended by Prof. Woo, Prof. Asuka, and Representative Director Iokibe.

The session began with a Q&A session on the cost issue of nuclear power generation, which had been referred to by Prof. Asuka in his lecture. It was discussed that, in order to prevent global warming, it was necessary to switch to green energy as soon as possible, but energy cost calculations were affected by changes in people’s values according to the times. It was also discussed that there was need to take into account factors such as the construction and maintenance costs of power generation facilities, construction location, and stable power supply.

Meanwhile, we asked Prof. Woo once again about the UN commitment to decarbonization and green energy, as well as to economic activities. He referred to the ASEAN Green Future Project, which promotes decarbonization in Southeast Asian countries, and we asked him about his image and some specific plans regarding how Japan could contribute. Prof. Woo answered that Japanese technology would greatly contribute to the realization of electricity supply across Southeast Asian countries such as Laos, Cambodia, Singapore, and Malaysia. We felt that high expectations were placed on Japan.

Prof. Woo, who has a strong interest in the possibilities of hydrogen, gave a concrete example of inefficiency caused by the use of different equipment depending on the country or device. Various initiatives are already under way before we realize them, though this might be simply because my knowledge is insufficient, and I feel that the world is changing.

With various questions asked by participants and comments made by Representative Director Iokibe, we had a very fruitful and informative session.

Parallel Session 2 was attended by Prof. Usui, who had delivered a commemorative lecture, Prof. Inose, who had made a keynote proposal, and Director Tatsushi Ueshima. There were eight people in total, but our discussion was so lively and interesting that one hour was insufficient.

First, we asked everyone to introduce themselves and explain how they had been involved in promoting gender equality and gender issues in their specialties and jobs. Prof. Usui's talk about familiarizing children with science seemed to be particularly interesting to various members, and there were several comments on the topic. In particular, some senior members emphatically indicated that even though measures to address gender issues had been in place for a long time, there was not yet sufficient improvement.

Prof. Usui, a researcher in economics who was once based in the U.S., explained how female researchers had been left out of the male research network and what attempts had been made to address this issue. Prof. Inose indicated that women could change their relationships by sharing opportunities to talk about what made their lives hard, which had been mentioned by Prof. Inose at the end of her lecture. The remarks from the two professors showed that gender issues were very multi-layered and that various problems lay behind the issues. To solve them, it is important to “establish new forms of relationships and networks,” which came up coincidentally as a key phrase during the session.

It is well known that Japan's gender gap index is very low. I asked the participants how this could be changed from now on. Prof. Koji Murata predicted that Japan's considerable decline in population and birthrate would force the country to correct the gender gap, and would lead to major structural changes. Although I don't feel that the prediction is very promising, I think that the declining population and birthrate might serve as an opportunity to change society.

At the end of the session, Director Ueshima talked about two coffee networks. The Specialty Coffee Association, an internationally connected network involving many female members, is changing. On the other hand, the All Japan Coffee Association, a long-established industry organization made up of only men, is far from exciting, which made the speaker feel it would be quicker to connect directly with overseas countries. In reality, the situation surrounding gender today is at a standstill. In addition, that situation is affected by each individual’s circumstances, making it difficult to change the gender situation so quickly. I have also personally experienced such a difficulty. However, new paths toward foreign countries are being forged. Now that it has become easier to make connections thanks to the advent of Zoom and other tools during the COVID-19 pandemic, the forging of connections with overseas partners rather than being limited to the domestic area might lead to a breakthrough in the gender situation. We spent a very interesting hour together.

In Parallel Session 3, we intended to discuss the theme “Current Status of the EV Shift in the International Community” based on the report by Prof. Jin Tang. However, our discussion was mainly on what Japan should do in the face of the impact from China’s shift to EVs.

There were three main points in the discussion. The first point was how the shift to EVs should be regarded with consideration given to people's awareness. A participant on the floor indicated that gasoline-powered vehicles were not just a means of transportation but a higher level of entertainment that enabled the driver to feel the pleasure of driving, which could not be offered by EVs. Prof. Tang said “In emerging countries, EVs are spreading before citizens even become familiar with advanced driving. Since EVs themselves provide a wide variety of entertainment services through the smart speakers and apps installed in the vehicles, those who become accustomed to such EVs will probably no longer return to gasoline-powered cars.”

The second point was how Japanese automakers and parts manufacturers should respond in light of these changes. There are several problems with this point. Until now, Japan's major automobile manufacturers have developed joint venture businesses mainly with Chinese state-owned enterprises such as FAW and SAIC. As reported by Prof. Tang, however, private companies such as BYD and emerging manufacturers are rising in the field of EVs. The days will soon be gone when it is simply sufficient for Japanese makers to manufacture gasoline-powered vehicles in partnership with state-owned companies. The supply chain is already changing greatly, and IT companies in particular are bringing about major changes to the designs of EVs and influencing the market. Can Japanese manufacturers properly respond to these changes? Prof. Tang said, “Products by Japanese component makers, using excellent materials, are very high in quality and very competitive. Individual companies are strong, but I feel that the drive to bring such makers together is weak.” This is a very valuable suggestion. In short, Japanese manufacturers are poor at offering a product into which different components can be assembled based on a big concept, such as the smartphone.

The third point was how to respond to economic security. Of particular importance is that, as global interdependence is deepening, critical minerals, including rare earths, are currently being used in applying sanctions. Asked how Chinese manufacturers would respond to this, Prof. Tang said, “Critical minerals play an important role in the field of batteries, where great progress is seen. If cobalt, for example, becomes rare, some technology will be developed to ensure that there is no need to use cobalt. Response is made flexibly.”

A disappointing thing about Parallel Session 3 was that there were no female participants, indicating a gender imbalance. The world of gasoline-powered cars has been male-dominant in some way, but it is hoped that a shift to EVs will lead the industry to be more open in terms of gender.